Why the nation’s housing mess is far from over

Longtime HW readers might recall a chart we publicized years ago from Credit Suisse that looked at loan resets and recasts — it’s since become widely part of the housing blogosphere, but we were actually the first to disseminate it publicly years ago. Today, the OC Register’s Mathew Padilla has the first update to this chart that’s been publicly released since we first published the original chart in mid-2007. And it shows pretty clearly why the nation’s housing mess is far from over — and let’s be honest, it illustrates the real pain California has facing it in the next few years. Like through 2012 and into 2013. Remember, foreclosures take time to work through the pipeline; while new defaults on subprime loans are on the downswing, foreclosure sales on subprime loans are surging as are REO counts. Expect the same to happen as we move up the credit spectrum here into Option ARMs. Here’s the chart: I’ve seen more than a few mortgage analysts ask the question lately as to whether we’ve been overreacting to loss severities and loss frequencies on Option ARM loans — this chart should make it clear that the answer is a definitive “no.”