It Was Only a Paper Moon

2010 will be the year of very large sovereign debt issuance. Governments in mature economies in Europe (including the UK), Asia (Japan), and North America (the US) will be borrowing huge amounts, while private-sector borrowings remain low and still shrinking in some areas. Government debt is substituting for private debt. The market will confront continuing credit-watch notices and credit downgrades for sovereign states. This will be disconcerting, since the downgrades will occur on the 50 US states and the 27 EU states.