About a week and a half ago prolific Business Insider poster Joe Weisenthal put together a chart of the amount of times the term “housing recovery” is mentioned in the press.
Now, much more than in the last five years, this term is being used in articles.
Barclays Capital is impressed with the latest Case-Shiller report where home prices in the second quarter gained across all headline composite indices. They say, “we continue to believe that improving home prices will play a pivotal role in driving a turnaround in the mortgage market and a broader housing recovery next year.”
So if the consensus is that housing is in recovery, what about the rest of the economy? When will it improve?
According to Deutsche Bank [stock DB][/ stock], second-quarter GDP is being revised upward. It’s not by much, to 0.2% from 1.7%.
The good news is that it is important to note that in four of the last five years (the same time frame as the BI chart) second half economies outperformed the first half.
The exception is the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, which substantially weakened the second half of 2008.
So a fair expectation is for further improvement in consumer spending attitudes through the second half of the year — barring some major upheaval.
Deutsche Bank is leaning toward more economic recovery but points out to bear in mind the presidential election could derail progress.
jgaffney@housingwire.com
