Low mortgage rates are helping the housing market stay on track despite the rising home prices, according to Freddie Mac’s Outlook for June.
The Outlook report analyzes current projections of homeownership rates in the years to come from among various experts, and the latest statistics from current homeowners.
So far this year, homeowners aren’t using cash-out refinances to the extent seen in recent memory.
"Despite the increase in cash-out refinances in the recent quarters, there is little risk of over leveraging in the conventional conforming prime market,” Freddie Mac Chief Economist Sean Becketti said. “The median loan-to-value ratio for all prime conventional cash-out refinances was 69% in the first quarter of 2016.”
“For comparison, it was 74% in 2000, 73% in 2001, and 71% in 2002,” Becketti said. “As we mentioned in last month's Insight increased leverage, including greater utilization of cash-out refinancing, is an important trend to monitor. The latest quarterly data show no worrisome cash-out trends."
During the first quarter, about $10.9 billion net of home equity was converted to cash during the refinance of conventional prime-credit home mortgages, down from $11 billion in the fourth quarter of 2015 and significantly less that the peak in the second quarter of 2006 of $84 billion.
Recent data around Gross Domestic Product suggests a rebound in growth for the rest of 2016 to 1.9% and 2.3% in 2017, according to the report.
A report from Capital Economics suggests that GPD is likely to slow down from 2017 onwards.
In fact, May’s disappointing labor report will not prevent the unemployment from averaging 4.9% in 2016 and 4.8% in 2017.
Home price appreciation is expected to increase 20 bases points to 5% in 2016 and 40 basis points to 4% in 2017, the report states.
Home prices increased in April, hitting just 2.9% below their peak in June 2006, according to a recent report by Black Knight Financial Services.
